Cubs should stop pretending they're contenders

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been a typical summer along the North Side of Chicago. The sun is shining, the bleachers and rooftops that surround the incomparable Wrigley Field are packed to the gills, and the beer pours endlessly from the watering holes neighboring one of the grand spectacles in all of baseball.

October's going to have a familiar feeling for Cubs fans as well, with their beloved and star-crossed club in the midst of yet another season of unmet expectations. After losing three of four games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, Chicago limps into the All-Star break with a 39-50 record completely unfitting of a team carrying the highest payroll in the National League.

This current outfit, now 9 1/2 games back of the resurgent Cincinnati Reds for first place in the NL Central, also bears little resemblance to the budding juggernaut that won a league-best 97 times during the 2008 regular season. It hasn't even been able to match the (under) achievements of last year's toxic group that went 83-79 as the prohibitive favorites to repeat as division champs.

A lack of clubhouse chemistry helped sabotage the 2009 squad, and this year's Cubs have yet to find the right combination as well even after weeding out the bad seeds -- namely combustible outfielder Milton Bradley -- during an offseason house cleaning. Chicago has looked both lifeless and in decline for the better part of the past 2 1/2 months, either too old or too disinterested to make the run necessary to challenge the Reds and St. Louis for division supremacy.

Even manager Lou Piniella, renowned for his intensity and passion to succeed, seems to have lost some of his trademark fire. Makes you wonder if the longtime skipper, who's in the final year of his contract, is ready to trade in the grueling road trips and draining summer days of July and August for the golf courses and shuffleboard tables many soon-to-be 67-year-olds are enjoying these days.

Piniella may not be the only member of the organization with numbered days. This season's performance has clearly put much-maligned general manager Jim Hendry's fanny on the hot seat, especially since he wasn't hired by first-year owner Tom Ricketts, while a host of high-priced veterans could be jettisoned by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline if the new regime chooses to slash payroll and commit to a more youth-oriented movement.

For what it's worth, Ricketts did issue a public declaration of confidence for his GM last week, just as the record should show that Hendry's two main offseason moves have each paid off handsomely so far. He unloaded the controversial Bradley to Seattle in exchange for pitcher Carlos Silva, who's emerged as the club's most dependable starter, while free-agent acquisition Marlon Byrd ranks among the NL's leading hitters and garnered his first career All-Star selection with a terrific first half.

"I'm not going to assign blame to anyone or anything," Ricketts recently stated. "The fact is when we came into the season, we had what appeared to be a pretty strong lineup. It hasn't worked out for whatever reason."

Ricketts has a point. A powerful Chicago offense that topped the NL in runs scored during the 2008 campaign no longer strikes fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, even with several core players still on the roster. The Cubs entered the break 14th in the Senior Circuit in scoring and 13th in on- base percentage, and were shut out for the sixth time in the past 22 games after a 7-0 setback to the Dodgers on Sunday.

While the decision to become sellers should be an easy one, unloading some of Chicago's pricey players figures to be a greater challenge. First baseman Derrek Lee and third baseman Aramis Ramirez, both of whom have struggled mightily as the expected middle-of-the-order anchors, will be tough to deal due to hefty contracts that don't reflect their eroding skills. Same goes for outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, one of Hendry's personnel missteps who's lost substantial playing time to promising rookie Tyler Colvin in recent weeks.

Then there's the curious case of Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs' one-time ace presently serving a team-issued suspension for a dugout blowup in late June. The team would likely be thrilled to rid itself of the volatile right-hander, but chances are the market's pretty dry for a pitcher with a 5.66 ERA and obvious maturity issues who's still owed nearly $38 million over the next two years.

Even Chicago's most attractive trade chip, left-hander Ted Lilly, has seen his value plummet after getting roughed up for 16 runs and serving up five homers in his final two starts before the All-Star break.

Laying the groundwork for a transition phase won't be an easy task for the Cubs, nor will contending with a frustrated fan base that's endured a lifetime's worth of heartache. But the last 1 1/2 years have proved that the status quo simply isn't good enough for baseball's unluckiest franchise, and a shakeup seems to be the only real recourse.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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