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07/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The British Open returned to the Old Course at St. Andrews this week for the 28th time. No course has hosted more Open Championships.
In keeping with the vintage of the historic venue, the story of the last two British Opens was a 50-something making a memorable run at the title. In 2008, 53-year-old Greg Norman was the third-round leader and clung to the lead on the 10th tee of the final round before falling apart on the back nine.
Last year, 59-year-old Tom Watson birdied the 71st hole to take the lead. He was looking to become the oldest major champion ever, and he would have tied the record for most wins at the British Open.
Watson bogeyed the 72nd hole, then lost to Stewart Cink in the playoff.
Whose turn is it this year? There are six names that come to mind, though only one of them has won the Open Championship on the Old Course at St. Andrews.
The six that could make a run this week are Mark Calcavecchia, Nick Faldo, Sandy Lyle, Tom Lehman, Mark O'Meara and Loren Roberts. The first five are former Open champions, while Roberts is the reigning Senior British Open champ.
Here's a breakdown of the six, and we'll tell you at the end which member of the group we think has the best chance to position himself for a title this week.
- Calcavecchia won the '89 British at Royal Troon. Prior to turning 50 in June, he missed two of his last four cuts on the PGA Tour. Since joining the Champions Tour, he has shared sixth and 16th in his two starts. Look for him to make plenty of noise on the Champions Tour, but not much this week.
- Faldo won the Open at St. Andrews in 1990, but has played just once all season. At the BMW International three weeks ago, Faldo missed the cut by nine strokes in his first start since the '09 Senior British Open. It is unlikely you'll be there down the stretch, so enjoy your birthday on Sunday, Sir Nick.
- Lyle, who won the '85 British at Royal St. George's, has been a non-factor in his last three starts on the Champions Tour. The two-time major champion missed the cut at the Senior PGA Championship, but has a pair of top-12 finishes in his last two European Senior Tour events. That's all well and good, but Lyle not's the choice here.
- At Royal Lytham & St. Annes in 1996, Lehman claimed his lone major championship. He won the Senior PGA back in May and shared 41st at the Memorial before missing the cut at the U.S. Open. He would be a good choice, for next weekend's Senior British Open.
- That leaves us with Roberts and O'Meara. Roberts would be a great choice since he has gone third-first-fifth in his last three Champions Tour starts. However, the choice here is O'Meara.
The 53-year-old teamed with Nick Price to win the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on the Champions Tour in April. That came after a runner-up finish in the rain-shortened Outback Steakhouse Pro-Am.
In his last three starts, his only top-20 was a fourth-place finish at the Senior PGA Championship. O'Meara, who won the '98 Open Championship at Birkdale, has only broken par in six of his last 10 years.
I didn't say I was picking the hottest player among the group, just the one I think has the best chance at making an unlikely run at winning the season's third major.
Keep an eye on O'Meara.
THE UNWANTED TITLE DEFENSE
Most, if not all golfers, will tell you explicitly that one of their top goals is to win a major championship. Only a select few are able to accomplish that feat.
John Rollins will not be among those players this week, though he will be attempting to defend a title at a PGA-sanctioned tournament, the Reno-Tahoe Open.
The British Open is technically a European Tour event, and for those who were unable to qualify to play at St. Andrews, the PGA Tour offers Reno-Tahoe Open. Winning the Reno-Tahoe Open counts as official victory on the PGA Tour, but does not automatically qualify a player for the four major championships.
Rollins, therefore, has the somewhat thankless task of defending his title this week in Reno. His victory last year came when the event was played opposite the World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational.
Rollins, ranked 116th in the world, is the fourth-highest player in the field in Reno. Chad Campbell is the highest-ranked, at No. 93.
With 85 of top 100 in the world playing at the British, Rollins has to contend with only two players that have won on the PGA Tour this year and two former major champions in his quest to repeat as the Reno-Tahoe champion.
If Rollins does repeat, he would join Vaughn Taylor as the only two players that have repeated in Tahoe.
MINI-TIDBITS
- Tiger Woods is using a new ball and a new putter this week at the British Open. Will either matter? Probably not, but I still think he finishes in the top-five, at worst.
- Meg Mallon announced her retirement from competitive golf last week. The 17- time winner's move is a big loss for the LPGA Tour, even though she has missed the cut in all seven starts this year.
- Lonnie Nielsen will be out of action for the remainder of the Champions Tour schedule as he is set to undergo knee surgery on July 21. Nielsen said his right knee has troubled him since he was in college, when he injured it playing basketball.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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