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05/12/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Mariners have dug themselves a hole in the American League West race with a dreadful recent homestand, but their current road trip has gotten off to a much more desirable start. The team will set its sights on a second straight victory over the lowly Baltimore Orioles in tonight's middle test of a three-game series from Camden Yards.
Seattle lost the first eight matchups of its just-completed residency before finally breaking through with an 8-1 triumph over the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Sunday's finale. The Mariners were able to build off that much- needed win in last night's opener of this set, with offseason addition Cliff Lee delivering 7 1/3 strong innings to lead his new club to a 5-1 decision.
Lee (1-1) scattered eight hits and did not walk a batter while yielding just one run to earn his first win in a Seattle uniform. It was the 2008 AL Cy Young Award recipient's third start with the Mariners, who acquired him from Philadelphia in December as part of a four-team blockbuster trade that sent All-Star pitcher Roy Halladay from Toronto to the Phillies, since sitting out the season's first month due to an abdominal strain.
"I've given the team a chance for the most part every time I've taken the mound and that's really all you can do as a starter," Lee said afterward. "To be able to do that and get deep into games and give the team a chance, that's really all I'm trying to do."
Ryan Langerhans provided Lee a 1-0 lead with a solo homer to lead off the fifth inning and Rob Johnson and Michael Saunders each came through with RBI singles as part of a three-run sixth that helped put the game out of reach. Both Johnson and Saunders had two hits on the night, while Josh Wilson finished 2-for-3 with two runs scored for Seattle.
Garrett Atkins accounted for Baltimore's lone run with an RBI single in the seventh. Starter David Hernandez fell to 0-5 on the year after surrendering five runs (four earned) over the first 5 2/3 innings, walking four and giving up five hits.
The loss was the Orioles' third in a row and dropped them to 4-9 at Camden Yards so far this season. Baltimore also owns the worst overall record in the majors at 9-24.
One bright spot for the Orioles of late has been the pitching of Brad Bergesen, who takes the hill tonight in search of a third straight winning performance. The second-year major leaguer made a successful return from the minors in Baltimore's 12-9 verdict over Boston May 1 at Camden Yards, then followed up by firing 6 2/3 shutout innings to defeat AL Central leader Minnesota this past Thursday in Minneapolis.
Bergesen, who went 7-5 in 19 starts as a rookie last year, had been sent to Triple-A Norfolk on April 20 after three straight rough outings in which he compiled a 12.19 earned run average and failed to last beyond 4 2/3 innings. One of those poor showings came against the Mariners in Seattle, with Bergesen getting battered for seven runs (four earned) on six hits and walking three over just 2 2/3 frames of an 8-2 setback.
The 24-year-old had gone 1-1 with a very solid 2.14 ERA in three encounters with the Mariners last season, including a June 9 victory at Camden Yards where he threw eight scoreless innings.
Seattle will be hoping Lee's fine display on Tuesday rubs off on Ryan Rowland- Smith, as the young southpaw is still in search of his first win of 2010 and has struggled mightily in his last three starts, having permitted five runs or more in each of those assignments.
The native Australian lasted a season-low 4 1/3 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday, with the Rays reaching him for six runs on seven hits and three walks. That effort raised Rowland-Smith's ERA to a subpar 6.21 through six starts.
Rowland-Smith has only previously faced the Orioles in relief and has gone 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA over the course of four appearances against Baltimore.
The Mariners swept a three-game home set with the Orioles last month and took two of three from Baltimore in their last visit to Camden Yards, which occurred in June of the 2009 season. Seattle has prevailed in nine of the past 12 overall meetings in the series as well.
<< Rays hope Price is right in Anaheim
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of pitchers who have gotten their 2010 campaigns
off to terrific starts go head-to-head as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
and Tampa Bay Rays decide a three-game series today at Angel Stadium.
Former No. 1 overa
<< Indians try to add to Royals' recent misery
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians try to hang a seventh straight loss
on the Kansas City Royals this evening, when the American League Central
cellar-dwellers play the middle test of their three-game set at Kauffman
Stadium.
Clevelan
<< Rangers, A's to resume set between co-AL West leaders
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derek Holland makes his season debut when the Texas Rangers
and Oakland Athletics continue their three-game series this evening at Rangers
Ballpark in Arlington.
One of the top pitching prospects in the Rangers' system, Ho
<< White Sox aim for sweep of short set with first-place Twins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox go for a sweep in the finale of their
brief two-game series with the Minnesota Twins this afternoon at Target Field.
No team was happier to see the Metrodome close than the White Sox, who had
dropped
Pens host surprising Habs in Game 7 of East semis >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens have pushed the
defending Stanley Cup champions to the brink in the Eastern Conference
semifinals and it all comes down to tonight, when the Habs visit the
Pittsburgh Penguins for a decisi
Flyers try to stay alive in Game 6 vs. Bruins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to stay alive in the
Eastern Conference semifinals once again when they host the Boston Bruins
tonight at Wachovia Center in Game 6 of the best-of-seven series.
The seventh-seeded Flyers lo
Injury scratches Hurricane Ike from Preakness >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hurricane Ike, winner of last month's Derby
Trial, has been withdrawn from the Preakness Stakes with a leg injury. Trainer
John Sadler made the announcement Wednesday morning.
"My horse isn't so fine. It'
Tigers recall P Figaro, option OF Raburn >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers recalled pitcher Alfredo
Figaro from Triple-A Toledo and optioned outfielder Ryan Raburn to the same
club Wednesday.
The 25-year-old Figaro posted a 4-1 record and 2.55 earned run ave
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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2007 Academy Award Betting : Oscars odds
The 79th Annual Academy Awards odds , which will air February 25th, is sparking an interest throughout the nation with the announcement of its nominees. As the public chooses their favorites, sportsbooks are creating odds for one of the biggest entertainment betting nights of the year.
Whether its at a “Oscar Party” or in an on line sportsbook, entertainment gambling on award shows represent a huge increase in betting. As the public speculation mounts, MySportsbook.com, the largest and most respected sportsbook on the web, posted odds on who is going home with a “Golden Best Friend.”
“ We see a majority of our entertainment wagers come from the Academy Awards,” said MySportsbook.com spokesperson, Tim Dalton. “This is a competition that applies to everyone. These are the people that entertain us on a daily basis and you want to see them win.”
MySportsbook.com posted the following odds for Academy Awards:
Odds to win the Achievement in Directing:
Alejandro González Iñárritu "Babel": 8/1
Martin Scorsese "The Departed": 2/17
Clint Eastwood "Letters From Iwo Jima: 4/1
Stephen Frears "The Queen": 12/1
Paul Greengrass "United 93": 15/1
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond": 11/1
Ryan Gosling in "Half Nelson": 20/1
Peter O’Toole in "Venus": 16/5
Will Smith in "The Pursuit of Happyness": 16/1
Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland": 1/11
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
Penélope Cruz in "Volver": 18/1
Judi Dench in "Notes on a Scandal": 15/1
Helen Mirren in "The Queen": 1/50
Meryl Streep in "The Devil Wears Prada": 10/1
Kate Winslet in "Little Children": 20/1
Best Animated Feature Film:
"Cars": 1/3
"Happy Feet": 2/1
"Monster House": 20/1
Best Foreign-Language Film of the Year:
"Water" – Canada: 22/1
"The Lives of Others" – Germany: 7/2
"After the Wedding" - Denmark: 24/1
"Days of Glory (Indigenes)" – Algeria: 23/1
"Pan's Labyrinth" - Mexico: 1/10
Odds to win the Best Live-Action Short Film:
"Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)": 6/5
"Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)": 7/2
"Helmer & Son": 5/2
"The Saviour": 6/1
"West Bank Story": 7/2
Odds to win the Best Original Screenplay:
"Babel": 7/4
"Letters From Iwo Jima": 3/1
"Little Miss Sunshine": 21/20
"Pan's Labyrinth": 11/4
"The Queen": 5/4
Best Motion Picture of the Year:
"Babel": 11/4
"The Departed": 1/2
"Letters from Iwo Jima": 15/2
"Little Miss Sunshine": 17/10
"The Queen": 20/1
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 11/10
Jackie Earle Haley in "Little Children": 10/1
Djimon Hounsou in "Blood Diamond": 9/1
Eddie Murphy in "Dreamgirls": 2/5
Mark Wahlberg in "The Departed": 5/1
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
Adriana Barraza in "Babel": 14/1
Cate Blanchett in "Notes on a Scandal": 11/1
Abigail Breslin in "Little Miss Sunshine": 2/1
Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls": 1/8
Rinko Kikuchi in "Babel": 11/1
Film To Win Most Oscars:
Dreamgirls: 2/3
Pans Labyrinth: 6/5
The Departed: 6/1
The Queen: 11/1
Babel: 15/1
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest: 11/1
Little Miss Sunshine: 15/1
Additional sports and entertainment odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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