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03/12/2010 - Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ohio State star Evan Turner buried a desperation three-pointer with no time on the clock to lift the fifth-ranked Buckeyes to a thrilling 69-68 victory over rival Michigan in the quarterfinals of the 2010 Big Ten Conference Tournament at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Turner's 40-foot shot gave him 18 points on the afternoon, while David Lighty and William Buford both finished with 15 points for the top-seeded Buckeyes (25-7), who kept their hopes for a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament alive.
Ohio State will play the winner of the Wisconsin/Illinois game scheduled for later Friday.
Manny Harris scored a game-high 26 points, as the Wolverines (15-17) put a dent in their chances for a possible NIT bid. DeShawn Sims and Stu Douglass each netted 16 points in the heart-breaking loss.
A Kyle Madsen dunk early in the second half staked Ohio State to a seemingly comfortable 39-27 advantage. However, the Wolverines clawed back with an 8-0 burst capped on a pair of threes by Douglass for a 39-35 difference. The Buckeyes eventually re-gained their double-digit lead at 48-38 on a Buford jam with less than 12 minutes to go in the contest.
After a Turner three made it 51-38, Michigan scored 16 of the next 23 points to pull within 58-54 on a Sims layup. Buford then made 1-of-2 foul shots on the other end before another Harris three-pointer made it interesting at 59-57 with four minutes remaining in the game.
Michigan cut it to 62-61 on a Harris trey, but a pair of free throws by Turner gave OSU a three-point lead. Douglass would tie the contest at 64-64 with a jumper beyond the arc to get the crowd into the game, while Harris continued to have the hot hand on the other end, scoring on a driving layup for a 66-64 Michigan lead. The Buckeyes then knotted the score on a Lighty jumper.
Harris then knocked down a 15-foot shot with 2.2 seconds left in the game for a 68-66 score, opening the door for Turner's heroics. Turner dribbled down the court and launched a 40-foot three-pointer at the buzzer to win the game. The shot was upheld by the officials after a quick review.
Turner's slashing layup three minutes into the game tied it at 6-6. It stayed that way for several minutes until Sims sank a pair of free throws for an 8-6 Michigan edge. Turner, though, evened the score on a short-range jumper shortly afterwards.
A 6-0 run capped by a Harris dunk gave Michigan a 14-6 lead, while Douglass later knocked down a three-pointer to push the margin to 19-10. The Buckeyes then showed why they're the top-seeded team in this tournament and went on a 22-4 run to claim a 32-23 lead on Turner's three-pointer with less than a minute to go in the first half.
Ohio State then headed to the locker room with a 35-25 cushion. Sims led all scorers at the break with 12 points, while Turner had nine for OSU.
Game Notes
Harris was 8-of-15 from the floor and 3-of-5 from beyond the arc. Harris and Sims both pulled down six rebounds in defeat...Turner dished out eight assists and was a perfect 3-for-3 from downtown...Jon Diebler contributed 11 points for the Buckeyes, who had a 30-18 advantage in the paint and shot 51.9 percent from the floor...Michigan made 49.0 percent of its shots.
<< Owls top Bonnies to start quest for A-10 three-peat
Atlantic City, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Fernandez scored 17 points and doled
out seven assists, as No. 17 Temple advanced to the semifinals of the Atlantic
10 Tournament with a solid 69-51 victory against St. Bonaventure at Boardwalk
Hall.
<< Losing starts at the top
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - March is when college basketball vaults to
the top of the sports scene. It also happens to be when I really start to pay
attention to the college game with an eye on June's draft.
Conventional wisdom says
<< Two-Year-Old Champ Returns to the Races
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what could be the sign of the times,
Lookin At Lucky, last year's Eclipse Award-winning two-year-old, will have just
two prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby. If the Bob Baffert-trained colt
winds up c
<< West Ham tries to overcome Bolton disappointment
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last weekend's 2-1 loss at home against
fellow relegation-strugglers Bolton did not sit well with West Ham manager
Gianfranco Zola.
But he is calling on his team to recover and pull off a stu
Berkman to have surgery on knee, out up to a month >>
Kissimmee, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Astros first baseman Lance Berkman
will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left knee within the next few days
and will miss two to four weeks of action.
Berkman said he felt discomfort in the k
Wall, Kentucky withstand tough test from Alabama >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Wall had 23 points, seven rebounds and
six assists in his first taste of tournament basketball, as second-ranked
Kentucky moved into the semifinals of the SEC Tournament with a 73-67 triumph
over Al
Heat suspend Wright for two games after DUI arrest >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat suspended forward Dorell Wright
for the next two games after he was charged with driving under the influence
and driving with a suspended license on Thursday.
"This is out of character for D
Pats re-sign CB Bodden, add LB Murrell >>
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots on Friday re-signed
cornerback Leigh Bodden and inked linebacker Marques Murrell to an undisclosed
contract.
Bodden started in 14 of the 15 games he played in for the Patriots last s
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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